Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak
Identifieur interne : 000659 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000658; suivant : 000660Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak
Auteurs : Shi Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Salihu S. Musa ; Qianying Lin ; Jinjun Ran ; Guangpu Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiming Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yijun Lou ; Lin Yang ; Daozhou Gao ; Daihai He ; Maggie H. Wang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number,
Url:
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020388
PubMed: 32024089
PubMed Central: 7074332
Affiliations:
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PMC:7074332Le document en format XML
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Musa</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00388">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email> (S.S.M.);<email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email> (Y.L.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Qianying" sort="Lin, Qianying" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianying" last="Lin">Qianying Lin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4-jcm-09-00388">Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, MI 48104, USA;<email>qianying@umich.edu</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5-jcm-09-00388">School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>jimran@connect.hku.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af6-jcm-09-00388">Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af7-jcm-09-00388">SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong 999077, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong 999077</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong 999077</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af8-jcm-09-00388">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Huaian 223300</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00388">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email> (S.S.M.);<email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email> (Y.L.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af9-jcm-09-00388">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>l.yang@polyu.edu.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af10-jcm-09-00388">Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China;<email>dzgao@shnu.edu.cn</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00388">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email> (S.S.M.);<email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email> (Y.L.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00388">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00388">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518060, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518060</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32024089</idno><idno type="pmc">7074332</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7074332</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7074332</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020388</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">001115</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">001115</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">001115</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">001115</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000259</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000259</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">003158</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">003158</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">003158</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000659</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000659</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000659</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/2020/Extraction">000659</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak</title><author><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00388">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00388">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518060, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518060</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S." last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00388">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email> (S.S.M.);<email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email> (Y.L.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Qianying" sort="Lin, Qianying" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianying" last="Lin">Qianying Lin</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af4-jcm-09-00388">Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, MI 48104, USA;<email>qianying@umich.edu</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af5-jcm-09-00388">School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>jimran@connect.hku.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af6-jcm-09-00388">Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>kennethgpy@link.cuhk.edu.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af7-jcm-09-00388">SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong 999077, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>SH Ho Scoliosis Research Lab, Joint Scoliosis Research Center of Chinese University of Hong Kong and Nanjing University, Hong Kong 999077</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong 999077</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af8-jcm-09-00388">School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Huaian 223300</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00388">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email> (S.S.M.);<email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email> (Y.L.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af9-jcm-09-00388">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>l.yang@polyu.edu.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af10-jcm-09-00388">Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China;<email>dzgao@shnu.edu.cn</email></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00388">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk</email> (S.S.M.);<email>yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk</email> (Y.L.)</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00388">JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China;<email>maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk</email></nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00388">Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518060, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen 518060</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Shenzhen</settlement><region type="province">Guangdong</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403–540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18–25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49–2.63). Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hao, X" uniqKey="Hao X">X. Hao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lau, E H" uniqKey="Lau E">E.H. Lau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wong, J Y" uniqKey="Wong J">J.Y. Wong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, K S" uniqKey="Leung K">K.S. Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J T" uniqKey="Wu J">J.T. Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cowling, B J" uniqKey="Cowling B">B.J. 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Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Teunis, P" uniqKey="Teunis P">P. Teunis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bauch, C T" uniqKey="Bauch C">C.T. Bauch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, J O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">J.O. Lloyd-Smith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Coffee, M P" uniqKey="Coffee M">M.P. Coffee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Galvani, A P" uniqKey="Galvani A">A.P. Galvani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lin, Q" uniqKey="Lin Q">Q. Lin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chiu, A P" uniqKey="Chiu A">A.P. Chiu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name></author><author><name sortKey="He, D" uniqKey="He D">D. He</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country><region><li>Guangdong</li></region><settlement><li>Shenzhen</li></settlement></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Gao, Daozhou" sort="Gao, Daozhou" uniqKey="Gao D" first="Daozhou" last="Gao">Daozhou Gao</name><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><name sortKey="Lin, Qianying" sort="Lin, Qianying" uniqKey="Lin Q" first="Qianying" last="Lin">Qianying Lin</name><name sortKey="Lou, Yijun" sort="Lou, Yijun" uniqKey="Lou Y" first="Yijun" last="Lou">Yijun Lou</name><name sortKey="Musa, Salihu S" sort="Musa, Salihu S" uniqKey="Musa S" first="Salihu S." last="Musa">Salihu S. Musa</name><name sortKey="Ran, Jinjun" sort="Ran, Jinjun" uniqKey="Ran J" first="Jinjun" last="Ran">Jinjun Ran</name><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name></noCountry><country name="République populaire de Chine"><region name="Guangdong"><name sortKey="Zhao, Shi" sort="Zhao, Shi" uniqKey="Zhao S" first="Shi" last="Zhao">Shi Zhao</name></region><name sortKey="Wang, Maggie H" sort="Wang, Maggie H" uniqKey="Wang M" first="Maggie H." last="Wang">Maggie H. Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Weiming" sort="Wang, Weiming" uniqKey="Wang W" first="Weiming" last="Wang">Weiming Wang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Guangpu" sort="Yang, Guangpu" uniqKey="Yang G" first="Guangpu" last="Yang">Guangpu Yang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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